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The MASI index of the Casablanca Stock Exchange is gradually regaining some of the losses it suffered following a market shock in early March. However, a recent technical assessment by BMCE Capital Global Research indicates that this recovery is still in its infancy, lacking the stability needed for a definitive bullish trend.
Market Overview
After facing significant selling pressure, the MASI index has stabilized above the 18,000-point threshold, signaling a relative improvement in investor sentiment and a gradual return of liquidity. From February 27 to April 14, 2026, the index recorded a modest rise of 1.14%, suggesting the market is emerging from a sharp downturn, though not yet signaling an end to the corrective phase.
Despite this uptick, the index remains approximately 9.8% below its peak reached on August 28, 2025. This highlights that the market has yet to reclaim its former momentum, indicating that the current improvements lean more towards rebalancing than the onset of a new bullish cycle.
Technical Adjustments
According to BMCE Global Research, the market’s turbulence in early March served as a necessary “technical cleanup,” relieving selling pressures and stabilizing prices above key support levels. This followed a steep one-day decline of 5.6%, marking one of the most significant drops since April 2025.
Since then, technical indicators have begun to show a gradual improvement, particularly following an impressive 4% rally on April 8, which rekindled some positive market momentum, although it has yet to solidify into a full turnaround.
Critical Resistance Levels
Even with the index holding above 18,000 points, analysts maintain that the real test lies in its ability to surpass the 200-day moving average, a crucial milestone for confirming any sustainable upward trajectory. As such, the current phase is characterized more by cautious anticipation than decisive action.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI), hovering near 59, reflects a technically favorable position without reaching overbought conditions, indicating an improving momentum while caution persists in the market. Maintaining a support range between 17,228 and 17,916 points is seen as essential to secure the ongoing positive outlook. Conversely, breaching the range of 18,400 to 18,850 points represents a vital technical barrier that needs a clear breakthrough to validate a more robust upward shift.
If the index fails to overcome this obstacle, the most likely scenario would be a continuation of sideways movement, reflecting a tenuous balance between supply and demand without a clear direction.
Underlying Support Factors
The cautiously optimistic view of BMCE Global Research is bolstered by several supportive data points, including a strong annual performance in 2025 and the introduction of futures trading for the MASI 20 index. Additionally, the profitability of listed companies has improved, exceeding 50 billion dirhams, marking an increase of over 40%.
While trading volumes have dropped by 17.5% year-on-year, this decline can be attributed to temporary factors tied to a high comparison base from 2025, rather than a decrease in market attractiveness or underlying liquidity.
Conclusion
In conclusion, the MASI index finds itself in a delicate transitional phase; while performance is improving, the confirmation of a bullish trend remains dependent on surpassing pivotal technical levels. The market landscape remains open to various scenarios, as it has yet to establish a definitive direction.
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The MASI index of the Casablanca Stock Exchange shows signs of recovery, but key resistance levels must be surpassed for a sustained upward trend.
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Is the MASI index on the brink of a bullish turn, or will it falter at crucial resistance levels? Insights into the Casablanca Stock Exchange’s current trajectory.
