The defense industry in Kyiv is producing more weapons than ever before. However, according to The Wall Street Journal, Ukraine cannot fight Moscow alone. With a slowdown among Western allies in increasing arms production, the potential value of weapons that Ukraine’s defense industry could produce has skyrocketed from $1 billion in 2022 to $35 billion over three years of war with Russia.
During the initial years of the conflict with Russia, Ukraine heavily relied on Western weapons stockpiles to equip its forces.
The American newspaper reported on Sunday that when Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, Ukraine had only one prototype of the locally manufactured Bohdana howitzer. Last year, Kyiv announced it was producing more artillery than all NATO countries combined.
The report noted that as U.S. support dwindles, the importance of Ukraine’s defense industry is increasing in its ability to continue fighting Russia or ensure its sovereignty if a peace agreement is reached. The more capable Ukraine becomes at producing its own weapons, the less it will be affected by fluctuations in international politics or transnational supply chain gaps.
The country also views its defense industry as a source of post-war income, which would bolster its struggling economy and help integrate it further with the West as a supplier.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated, “Ukraine will always need its strong weapons to build our strong Ukrainian state.”
Zelensky added that over 40% of the weapons used on the front lines against Russia are now manufactured in Ukraine. In specific sectors, such as drones, unmanned ground vehicles, and electronic warfare, this figure approaches 100%.
Ukrainian manufacturers are increasingly producing conventional weapons, such as artillery systems, armored vehicles, mines, and ammunition of all calibers, according to The Wall Street Journal.
In this context, Rob Lee, a researcher at the Foreign Policy Research Institute in Pennsylvania, stated, “Competition is increasing in Western countries for the best computer science or information technology graduates. In Ukraine, most of the top talent is heading toward the defense sector.”
However, this significant shift in local arsenal will not be sufficient for Ukraine to face Moscow’s forces alone, according to the newspaper. Kyiv still needs the U.S. and other Western allies to counter the Russian war machine, as it cannot produce enough ammunition to sustain its artillery fire or any of the air defense systems it needs to protect against Russian missiles.
Despite the flourishing arms production, Kyiv’s budget has been strained due to the severe pressures of the ongoing war.
Olexandr Kamyshin, an advisor to Zelensky and former Minister of Strategic Industries, stated that the government will be able to purchase less than half of what manufacturers can produce this year.
He added, “It is painful to be unable to produce and to lack what you need to fight. It is even more painful when you can produce but cannot fund the purchases.”
To take advantage of the excess production capacity, some Western governments are financing arms purchases from Ukrainian defense companies in what is known as the Danish model, where funds are provided to buy weapons from Ukrainian manufacturers instead of supplying Kyiv with Western arms.
Rob Lee further noted, “Perhaps direct investment in these companies is the best use of available funds to achieve impact on the battlefield.”
The war has served as a testing ground for a range of previously unused weapons, providing NATO countries with valuable lessons regarding their performance in combat.
The report indicated that Ukraine inherited a significant portion of the Soviet defense industry when it gained independence, but those manufacturing capabilities quickly declined.
A private company developed the Bohdana artillery system in 2016, but it did not receive any orders before the Russian invasion, according to Vitaliy Zahodaiiev, general director of the Kramatorsk Heavy Machinery Plant.
After the Russian invasion in 2022, concerns about Russia’s control over the system increased to the point that Zahodaiiev received orders to dismantle the only prototype, and the system was only displayed during a military parade on Independence Day.
However, Zahodaiiev soon received orders to reassemble the cannon for use on the front lines. Used alongside the French-made Caesar self-propelled howitzer, the Bohdana system shelled Russian positions on Snake Island in the Black Sea, forcing Moscow to abandon the prominent rocky outpost during the first summer of the war.
Demand for the Bohdana system began to rise, but the factory in Eastern Ukraine was in range of Russian fire. Under artillery bombardment, workers began to relocate production to new facilities in the west of the country, but not before more than half of the equipment was destroyed.
With long lead times to receive replacement equipment orders, the company began producing its own components, diversifying production across several facilities to minimize the impact of any Russian attack. If a missile successfully strikes one facility, others can continue production.
Zahodaiiev stated that the company now produces more than 20 Bohdana howitzers monthly. According to a study by the German Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Russia can produce around 40 artillery pieces in the same timeframe. The final assembly of the guns only occurs at the last moment to reduce the chances of being targeted before reaching the front line.
The cost of a Bohdana howitzer is €2.8 million ($3.1 million) per unit, compared to €8.76 million for the Swedish Archer or about €4 million for the French Caesar, which features more advanced electronic systems but has a longer production time.
The Bohdana is also easier to repair and maintain. Zahodaiiev remarked, “Any part is available within 24 hours. We have mobile brigades operating across the entire front line,” adding that the company is working on developing its own framework to further reduce reliance on imports.
Currently, Kyiv produces about 85% of the Bohdana’s components locally. This model exemplifies the progress made by Ukraine’s defense industry, but efforts to produce NATO-compatible 155mm ammunition, an essential element of the war effort, highlight ongoing challenges, according to the report.
