Morocco’s cereal production is set to improve significantly in 2026, driven by enhanced rainfall and the recovery of soil moisture levels that had been depleted during recent droughts. This rebound is expected to reduce the kingdom’s grain imports in the upcoming marketing season.
Positive Projections for Cereal Harvest
According to the latest report from the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), Morocco’s grain production could reach approximately 6.3 million tons in 2026, marking a 16% increase from the average of the previous five years. This is a welcome turnaround following a series of challenging agricultural seasons affected by consecutive periods of drought, which had resulted in decreased productivity and heightened reliance on international markets to satisfy domestic demand.
Impact of Climate on Crop Yields
The FAO has noted that the harvesting of winter wheat and barley began in May and is expected to continue until the end of July 2026. However, the onset of the season faced hurdles; drought conditions delayed planting and affected early crop growth stages, particularly in central and eastern regions of Morocco. A turning point was reached with the rainfall from late November 2025, which improved soil moisture and bolstered water resources, including several reservoirs.
The organization highlighted that improved climatic conditions from January to April 2026 provided a more favorable environment for cereal cultivation, positively influencing national yield forecasts despite localized flooding in parts of northwestern Morocco.
Economic Implications of Increased Local Production
As local grain production rises, Morocco is set to experience a decrease in wheat imports for the 2026/2027 marketing season, projected to drop to around 5 million tons—approximately a 15% decline compared to the average import volumes of recent years. This development has significant economic implications, given Morocco’s heavy reliance on imports to meet a substantial portion of its grain demand. Local production levels will directly impact import volumes and the cost of supplying the domestic market.
In 2025, grain production had already fallen to about 4.5 million tons, reflecting a 13% decrease compared to the five-year average, driven by ongoing drought effects and insufficient precipitation in key producing regions. In contrast, grain import needs for the 2025/2026 marketing season were estimated at roughly 11 million tons—an increase of nearly 20% compared to the average—highlighting the gap left by weakened local production during dry years.
Government Measures to Boost Local Harvests
In light of these dynamics, the FAO reported that the Moroccan government has instituted a temporary customs duty of 135% on wheat imports from June 1 to July 31, 2026, aimed at creating favorable conditions for the marketing of local produce during the harvest period.
Concurrently, food-related inflation has remained relatively low in the early months of the year, showing a declining trend after a slight increase in March and April, reaching approximately -0.8% in May.
The positive outlook for Morocco’s agricultural season appears against a backdrop of global shifts in the grain market. The FAO forecasts a decline in global grain production in 2026 compared to the record levels of 2025, projecting total output at around 2.983 billion tons. Furthermore, global wheat trade volume is expected to decrease by 4.7% during the 2026/2027 marketing season, making the enhancement of domestic production crucial for Morocco in minimizing its exposure to price fluctuations and supply chain disruptions in international markets.
