Morocco is on the cusp of a significant demographic shift that will reshape its societal landscape over the next few decades. As the elderly population surges alongside a slowdown in the growth of the working-age demographic, the country faces unprecedented challenges for its pension, health, and social service systems while also presenting opportunities for enhancing human development.
Shifting Age Dynamics
According to projections from the High Commission for Planning, the number of Moroccans aged 60 and over will increase dramatically, expected to reach 10.9 million by 2060, up from approximately 5 million in 2024. Currently, seniors represent around 14% of the population, a figure anticipated to rise to nearly 25% in the coming decades. This shift occurs against a backdrop of declining demographic growth, with the population growth rate expected to fall from 0.7% in 2024 to about 0.08% by 2060, primarily due to a fertility rate that has dropped below the generational replacement threshold of 2.1 children per woman.
Pressure on Pension and Health Systems
The looming demographic transformation will intensify pressures on the pension system, as the active population is not expected to grow at a comparable pace. Forecasts indicate that the working-age cohort (aged 15 and above) will rise from 22.08 million to only 24.96 million—a meager increase of 13.1%. Consequently, the number of retirees will climb relative to contributors in pension systems, jeopardizing the financial balance of intergenerational solidarity-based systems. This scenario makes pension reform an urgent priority in the coming years.
Health services also face substantial challenges; an increasing elderly population necessitates the development of specialized geriatric care and enhanced healthcare infrastructure tailored to this demographic.
Vulnerabilities Among Women
Data from the High Commission for Planning reveals alarming social indicators for the elderly population in Morocco, especially among women. Women comprise 51.2% of the population aged over 60, but their social conditions are considerably more precarious than those of men. The percentage of widowed elderly women stands at 37.6%, compared to just 4.1% among elderly men. Additionally, pension coverage is notably limited, with only about a third of elderly men receiving pensions, while merely 6.7% of elderly women benefit from them.
The gender disparity extends to education, where 72.6% of elderly women are illiterate, against 42.8% of elderly men. Compounding these issues, only 16.1% of seniors are participating in the labor market, a figure that has been in steady decline since 2004. Furthermore, around 9% of the elderly live alone, signaling a gradual shift away from traditional familial support systems.
Harnessing Opportunities in Education
Despite the challenges posed by this demographic evolution, the declining number of children may present a rare opportunity to recalibrate educational priorities and improve the quality of services offered. The High Commission for Planning anticipates a 23.8% decrease in the number of preschool-aged children—from 1.25 million in 2024 to 960,000 by 2060. The figures for primary school-aged children are similarly alarming, with a projected drop from 4.16 million to 3.04 million, representing a 27% decline.
The impact of this demographic change will also be felt in the labor market, with the number of youth aged 18 to 24—those on the brink of entering the workforce—expected to decrease from 3.89 million to 3.77 million by 2060. Economists view this phase as a “demographic window of opportunity,” as the reduction in population growth may allow for a reallocation of resources towards enhancing education, training, social services, and overall living standards, provided that proactive policies are enacted to transform demographic challenges into developmental assets.
