Lead
A recent study from the National Institute of Demographic Studies has unveiled significant demographic shifts in the Maghreb region, particularly Morocco, as fertility rates plummet to unprecedented levels. This decline poses escalating demographic and economic challenges for the area in the forthcoming decades.
Demographic Decline in the Maghreb
According to the study, Morocco’s fertility rate hit a historical low of 1.97 children per woman in 2024, reflecting a broader trend across the region that includes Algeria and Tunisia. In stark contrast to the 7 to 8 children per woman seen in the 1970s, birth rates have halved since the early 1990s and are continuing to fall sharply.
For context, Tunisia recorded a fertility rate of 1.58 children per woman in 2023, with projections suggesting a further decline to 1.53 in 2024. Meanwhile, Algeria stands at 2.61 children per woman, though its birth rate is also on a downward trajectory.
Socioeconomic Factors at Play
The study attributes this demographic shift to various social and economic factors. Key among them are the rising age of marriage, increased use of contraceptive methods, and longer educational pursuits that delay entry into the job market, particularly for women. Notably, Morocco is among the most reliant countries on birth control, with 71% of married women utilizing some form of contraception.
Imminent Aging Challenges
The report warns that these declining fertility rates are likely to accelerate the aging population across the region. In Morocco, the proportion of individuals aged 60 and older is expected to rise to 13.8% in 2024, whereas Tunisia exhibits the highest rate, with seniors constituting 17% of its population, coinciding with a visible decrease in the youth demographic.
Navigating a New Demographic Era
The findings indicate that the Maghreb countries are entering a new demographic phase characterized by slowing population growth and a growing elderly population. This evolution presents mounting challenges for social security, healthcare, and labor market systems in the years to come, necessitating urgent policy responses to manage its implications effectively.
