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The recent collapse of U.S.-Iran negotiations, mediated by Pakistan, underscores a persistent deadlock fueled by inflexible positions from both sides. With another round of talks looming, the prospect of meaningful progress remains bleak, emphasizing the urgent need for a comprehensive regional framework to facilitate lasting peace.
Navigating a Complex Landscape
Former Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu highlights that the ongoing crisis is not solely rooted in a single dispute but results from the intersection of multiple geopolitical tensions. Key flashpoints include the Strait of Hormuz, Iran’s nuclear ambitions, the absence of a cohesive regional security framework, and the unresolved Israeli-Palestinian conflict. These issues are inextricably linked; progress on one front necessitates simultaneous advancements on others.
Amidst escalating tensions, the Strait of Hormuz has emerged as a focal point of conflict. Although temporarily reopened, Iran’s earlier blockade highlighted the region’s fragility and the swift potential for escalation. A durable solution would involve establishing joint management of the Strait by a coalition of trusted mediators, such as Turkey, Pakistan, Malaysia, and Indonesia, to ensure safe passage through a maritime security mission.
The Need for Immediate Action
For any lasting agreement to take shape, the United States would need to halt military operations against Iran, including joint actions with Israel. In return, Iran must commit to maritime security measures, refraining from hostile actions toward its neighbors. Gulf nations, forcibly drawn into conflict, would face compelling incentives to support such an initiative.
This regional endeavor calls for explicit backing from the United Nations Security Council, with the endorsement of its five permanent members. Achieving immediate stability could pave the way for a sustainable governance framework for maritime navigation and mechanisms to compensate for wartime damages via marine revenues.
Toward a Mutual Understanding on Nuclear Issues
While Iran’s nuclear ambitions remain a point of contention, pathways towards de-escalation persist, contingent upon reciprocal actions. Iran should reaffirm its long-term commitment to forgo nuclear weapons, while the U.S. must acknowledge Iran’s right to develop peaceful nuclear energy. Such mutual recognition would allow both sides to claim diplomatic victories.
The 2010 Tehran Agreement, brokered by Turkey and Brazil with the International Atomic Energy Agency, serves as a valuable template. During my tenure as Turkey’s Foreign Minister, I helped facilitate this deal, which required Iran to store its enriched uranium in Turkey in exchange for civilian nuclear fuel. A new iteration of this arrangement could provide a promising foundation for renewed negotiations, potentially facilitated once more by Turkey or Pakistan.
Once common ground is established, focus can shift towards creating a nuclear-free zone in the region, required even for Israel’s arsenal, thereby addressing broader security concerns. Although immediate calls for Iran to dismantle its ballistic missile capabilities post-U.S. and Israeli strikes are unrealistic, progress remains within reach. The central challenge lies in managing proxy conflicts and fostering a shared security architecture.
Building Trust for a Sustainable Framework
A dual-track approach is essential; beginning with building trust between Iran and Gulf states, facilitated by Turkey, Pakistan, Malaysia, and Indonesia. A joint committee could alleviate immediate tensions while laying the groundwork for sustainable arrangements.
The second tier would involve a regional security forum that includes Turkey, Pakistan, Egypt, Iraq, Syria, Jordan, Lebanon, Yemen, alongside Gulf states and Iran. Over time, this could evolve into a structured regional dialogue, reminiscent of the 1975 Helsinki Accords in Europe.
Just as Europe managed deep divisions during the Cold War, a framework based on transparency, reciprocal restraint, and verification mechanisms could vastly reduce the risk of escalation. The 1990 Conventional Armed Forces in Europe Treaty demonstrated that even deeply divided regions can agree on military capacity limits when mutual vulnerabilities are acknowledged.
Addressing the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict
Nevertheless, any sustainable regional order must confront the Palestinian issue, where the deprivation of self-determination remains a fundamental source of instability. Israel’s prolonged occupation of the West Bank and its military actions in Gaza have thwarted the establishment of a secure environment. Efforts to surpass the conflict, such as the Abraham Accords, have only exacerbated resentment.
A fresh approach is urgently needed. Israel must be presented with the opportunity to integrate into a regional security framework offering full diplomatic normalization and formal guarantees in exchange for recognizing the Palestinian state and ending military operations in Lebanon.
As President Donald Trump embarks on his second term, he faces a critical choice: to continue an ambiguous strategic conflict risking deeper regional chaos or to seize the opportunity for a diplomatic breakthrough, starting with a ceasefire and culminating in a lasting peace. Concurrently, international policymakers should pursue a coordinated diplomatic initiative aimed at de-escalating tensions.
Reviving the “Alliance of Civilizations,” launched by Turkey and Spain in 2005 and later institutionalized under the United Nations, could serve as a fitting platform for such an effort. A summit led by this framework would signal a collective commitment to transition from crisis management to a cooperative regional order. Absent a comprehensive approach to security, the current cycle of escalation is poised to persist and intensify.
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- U.S.-Iran negotiations
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The collapse of U.S.-Iran negotiations highlights the need for a comprehensive regional security framework to achieve lasting peace in the Middle East.
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As U.S.-Iran talks falter, a comprehensive regional approach is essential for enduring peace in the Middle East. Here’s how it can be achieved.
