Unprecedented Population Decline in China Amidst Birth Collapse and Aging Surge
The population of China has recorded a decline for the fourth consecutive year in 2025, decreasing by 3.39 million to reach 1.405 billion, according to data released on Monday by the country’s National Bureau of Statistics.
Births fell by 17 percent over the span of a year, dropping from 9.54 million in 2024 to 7.92 million in 2025, marking a historical low. The birth rate also declined to 5.63 births per thousand people.
In contrast, the number of marriages—often seen as a key indicator of birth rates—plummeted by about one-fifth in 2024, recording the largest drop ever with 6.1 million couples marrying compared to 7.68 million in 2023.
Meanwhile, deaths increased from 10.93 million in 2024 to 11.31 million in 2025, leading to a death rate of 8.04 per thousand people, the highest level recorded since 1968.
China is facing a rapidly aging population, with individuals aged over 60 currently making up around 23 percent of the total population. This group is expected to number approximately 400 million by 2035, comparable to the total population of the United States and Italy combined.
With a fertility rate nearing one child per woman—well below the generational replacement threshold of 2.1—China now parallels other East Asian economies, such as South Korea and Singapore, which also exhibit similar rates around 1.1 children per woman.
To address this demographic crisis, Chinese authorities have launched several initiatives, including raising the retirement age to 63 for men (up from 60) and 58 for women (up from 55). A reform adopted in May 2025 also allows couples to register their marriages anywhere in the country instead of being restricted to their place of residence, contributing to a 22.5 percent rise in the number of marriages during the third quarter of 2025.
Additionally, China has heavily invested in pro-natalist policies, with expenditures estimated at around 180 billion yuan (approximately 25.8 billion dollars) in 2025. This includes the introduction of national family allowances and the implementation of completely free maternal healthcare services starting in 2026.
