The International Monetary Fund Raises Global Growth Projections for 2026 Driven by Reduced Tariffs and AI Boom
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has once again raised its global growth projections for 2026, as companies and economies adapt to the reduced tariffs implemented over the past months, amid a continuous surge in investment in artificial intelligence.
In its January edition of the World Economic Outlook report, the IMF predicted a growth rate of 3.2 percent for the year 2027, unchanged from previous forecasts.
The IMF’s latest projections assume an actual average tariff rate of 18.5 percent for the United States, down about 25 percent from the projections made in April 2025.
The fund estimated that the U.S. economy will grow by 2.4 percent in 2026, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the October forecast, partially attributed to the significant boost from massive investment in AI infrastructure, including data centers and the development of AI chips and energy.
Regarding the growth expectations for other major economies, the IMF stated that China’s growth in 2026 is expected to reach 4.5 percent, a decline from the better-than-expected performance of 5 percent in 2025, but still 0.3 percentage points higher than the estimates made in October.
The fund forecasts eurozone growth of 1.3 percent in 2026, up 0.1 percentage points from the October estimates, driven by increased public spending in Germany and improved performance in Spain and Ireland.
The IMF maintained its 2027 eurozone growth forecast at 1.4 percent, noting that planned increases in European defense spending will not materialize until later years.
The fund predicted that global inflation will continue to decline, from 4.1 percent in 2025 to 3.8 percent in 2026 and 3.4 percent in 2027.
