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Private sector analysts have lowered their growth forecast for the Mexican economy to 1.3% for 2026. This estimate, published in a report on January 9, 2026, reflects the average opinions of 35 financial institutions, with predictions ranging from a maximum of 1.8% to a minimum of 0.6%. These figures fall short of the government’s target, which is between 1.8% and 2.8%.
For the following year, 2027, growth is expected to rise to 1.8%. Regarding monetary policy, forecasts indicate a potential interest rate cut of 25 basis points in May, bringing the rate to 6.5% by the end of the year.
Inflation expectations have increased for 2026, with general and core inflation projected at 4%, exceeding the central bank’s target of 3%. In the currency market, the Mexican peso is expected to stabilize at 19 pesos to the dollar by the end of this year, with a possible decline to 19.5 pesos in 2027.
The International Institute of Finance has been more conservative, predicting only 0.9% growth for 2026, suggesting that the economy could record two consecutive years of growth below 1%, a significantly lower level than the historical average of 1.8% before the pandemic.
