Morocco’s Bank Predicts: Economic Growth Accelerating to 5% and Dirham Consistent with Fundamentals Despite Geo-Economic Challenges
The Bank of Morocco has concluded its final quarterly meeting of 2025, announcing a series of optimistic economic forecasts. It noted a significant acceleration in economic growth, affirming that the value of the dirham remains aligned with the country’s economic fundamentals. The Board of the Bank decided to keep the main interest rate unchanged at 2.25%, deeming this level appropriate, and emphasized the need to closely monitor economic developments due to the “high level of uncertainty” linked to geo-economic tensions and climatic conditions.
The central bank highlighted substantial growth in the overall economy, forecasting an increase of 5% this year, before stabilizing at an average of 4.5% over the following two years. This performance is largely attributed to robust activity in non-agricultural sectors, expected to maintain strong growth rates due to significant investment efforts, reaching growth rates of 5% in 2025, then 4.8% in 2026 and 4.5% in 2027. As for the agricultural sector, it is anticipated that agricultural value added will rise by 5% in 2025, with moderate growth expected in the following years based on the assumption of a return to average cereal production.
Regarding the currency, the Bank of Morocco stated that the dirham’s value remains generally consistent with economic fundamentals, predicting that the real effective exchange rate will rise by 2.2% in 2025, offset by a lower domestic inflation rate compared to trading partners. In terms of external trade, the central bank forecasts strong performance in exporting sectors; exports are expected to increase by 4.5% in 2025 driven by improved phosphate sales, with the automotive sector anticipated to witness a significant recovery, with expected annual growth of around 17%, reaching 208 billion dirhams by 2027. Tourism revenues are projected to continue their notable performance, reaching around 155 billion dirhams by 2027, and remittances from Moroccans abroad are expected to grow at an average annual rate of 3.1%.
In conclusion, the bank confirmed that the current account will remain in a limited deficit of 1.8% of GDP in 2025. Thanks to flows of foreign direct investment and external financing for the treasury, the Bank of Morocco expects official reserve assets to gradually improve, reaching 448 billion dirhams by the end of 2027, ensuring coverage of about five and a half months of goods and services imports. Additionally, the growth rate of bank credit granted to the non-financial sector is expected to accelerate to 5% in 2026 and 2027, reflecting confidence in the anticipated development of economic activity.
