How Africa Meets the Imperative of Green Manufacturing
By: Eileen Davis, Head of Programs at the African Climate Foundation and Co-coordinator of the Green Industrial Development Expert Team
Shema El Treaki, Managing Director of the Growth Team and Principal Author of the Main Report by the Green Industrial Development Expert Team
Nimrod Zalk, Senior Climate and Economic Development Researcher at the Nelson Mandela School of Public Governance, University of Cape Town, and Co-coordinator of the Green Industrial Development Expert Team
The recently concluded United Nations Climate Change Conference held in Belém, Brazil (COP30) took place in a year of significant importance for global climate negotiations. Countries were required to submit updated nationally determined contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement of 2015. However, many nations, including major powers like the United States, have rolled back their climate commitments amid a worsening geopolitical fragmentation and uncertainty.
The outlook is not promising. In its latest emissions gap report, the United Nations Environment Programme warns that even if countries fully implement their NDCs by 2035, global temperatures could rise by 2.3 to 2.5 degrees Celsius by 2100—far exceeding the 1.5-degree Celsius target set by the Paris Agreement. This trajectory would have dire global consequences, particularly affecting Africa, where the financing needs for climate adaptation face chronic shortfalls.
The risks from Africa’s perspective are heightened as the ability to adapt to climate change is closely linked to development on the continent. African countries cannot build adaptive capacity without advancing growth, and vice versa. Yet, repeated instances show that the international community cannot be relied upon to provide funding for either endeavor. Quite the opposite, wealthy nations are cutting their foreign aid budgets even as they increasingly compete for minerals and other strategic assets in Africa.
However, this geopolitical fragmentation is not without its silver lining: the frameworks and regulations that have constrained development and industrial policies in Africa are eroding. As stated in a new opinion piece from the Green Industrial Development Expert Team, African leaders must seize this opportunity to adopt a “change-enabled” approach.
We cannot squander the policy space created by the fracturing of the multilateral system. Africa does not have the luxury of choosing between stagnant growth (which may perpetuate poverty) or a “pollute now, clean up later” approach (which could trap the continent in a cycle of fossil fuels). Instead, it must develop its own approach to green manufacturing. This means diversifying beyond raw material exports, subsistence farming, and low-productivity services to foster higher-value, climate-compatible industries that drive development and build resilience.
Africa has all the ingredients for a successful green industrial transformation: abundant renewable energy resources; a rapidly growing youth demographic expected to comprise nearly 25% of the world’s working-age population by 2050; large reserves of critical minerals needed for digital and clean energy technologies; and tremendous agricultural potential.
In fact, enhancing low-carbon industries—like textiles, food, beverages, and other consumer goods—and powering them with renewable energy could yield immediate benefits. Green industrial complexes and special economic zones can stimulate these shifts, while circular economy initiatives can generally help preserve value and improve sustainability.
African nations are also capable of transforming agriculture by boosting productivity, investing in climate-resilient crop technologies, and harnessing export opportunities offered by “freshness manufacturing.” Moreover, lowering input costs, especially by using competition policy to dismantle fertilizer monopolies, could build resilience and reduce exposure to external shocks.
Africa’s abundant renewable energy potential should, over time, facilitate the transition to heavier industries like steel and cement (though the commercial viability of the clean technologies needed to decarbonize these hard-to-abate sectors has yet to be proven). There are also opportunities to develop inputs for green manufacturing, such as bio-fibers and biodegradable packaging.
Perhaps the greatest barrier to implementing these strategies is financing. Perceived risks associated with investing in developing economies, weak governance institutions, and failures of the global financial infrastructure mean that far too little climate finance is flowing to Africa. As a result, the continent faces a financing gap of $1.6 trillion to achieve the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals by 2030.
While African leaders must continue advocating for reforms in the global financial system and climate justice, they also need to take immediate action. Multilateral development banks in Africa should play a much greater role in financing high-productivity sectors and green infrastructure using local currencies and long-term investment horizons, which requires scaling up the capitalization and technical capabilities of these vital institutions. Governments need to clamp down on illicit financial flows totaling around $88.6 billion leaving Africa each year.
Africa must also move decisively in the mineral sector. To break the “resource curse,” governments should condition access to these raw materials on investment in value-added processing and local industrial capabilities, and demand fairer global partnerships overall.
Much will depend on African governments acting as proactive forces in shaping the market: setting strategic goals, fostering dynamic public-private partnerships, and adapting to technological change. They should also invest in research and development, enhance skills in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics, and strengthen links between industry and academia. Keeping these tasks in mind, enhancing state capacities will be a vital prerequisite for translating ambition into sustainable economic transformation.
Finally, the secretariat of the African Continental Free Trade Area and the Cabinet could help shape Africa’s green manufacturing agenda and coordinate common negotiating positions in global forums. If fully implemented, the African Continental Free Trade Area could increase intra-African exports by over 81% and real income by about 7%, positioning it well to stimulate the development of new green industries.
Africa must avoid resuming its historical role as merely a supplier of natural resources without significant value addition. By leveraging the emerging policy space, regional platforms such as the African Continental Free Trade Area, and ambitious industrial strategies, the continent can chart a new path toward shared prosperity. But it must act swiftly to seize this opportunity to shape its climatic and developmental future.
