Fitch Ratings has maintained the rating of the Office Chérifien des Phosphates (OCP) at BB+ with a stable outlook, confirming the strength of the group’s financial and operational indicators and its ability to implement a significant investment program in the coming years.
The agency clarified that the group’s rating remains constrained by Morocco’s sovereign credit ceiling, given that the state holds 94% of its capital, despite the group’s standalone credit strength being estimated at a higher level (bbb-). The report also highlighted OCP’s position as a global leader in the production of phosphate and its derivatives.
The group is preparing to increase its production capacity from 15.4 million tons currently to 20 million tons by 2027, as part of an expansion plan aimed at boosting industrial production, especially of TSP, which is less dependent on ammonia and international price fluctuations.
Fitch expects OCP to maintain an average EBITDA of approximately 40 billion dirhams during the period from 2025 to 2028, with a high profit margin reaching 38%. The group plans to execute a massive investment program valued at $10 billion between 2025 and 2028, focusing on expanding fertilizer production capacities and building a green ammonia plant with a capacity of one million tons, along with achieving energy self-sufficiency from renewable sources by 2027.
The agency emphasized that a significant portion of the investments scheduled for after 2025 has not yet been committed, providing the group with greater flexibility to adapt to market fluctuations. Despite the anticipated scale of investments, Fitch projected that the group’s debt levels would remain within comfortable limits, averaging 2.8 times during the period from 2025 to 2028, below the established ceiling of 3 times to maintain the quality of the rating.
The report affirms the strategic role of OCP in the national economy as the largest industrial exporter and one of the prominent bond issuers in international markets, stressing that the strength of its business model and its ability to finance its expansion plans ensure stable future prospects, despite its rating being linked to Morocco’s sovereign ceiling.
