Study: Aging Population and Brain Drain Threaten the Future of the Job Market in Morocco
The Royal Institute for Strategic Studies has sounded the alarm regarding the labor market situation in Morocco, warning of structural risks that could disrupt its stability in the long term. Among the main concerns are the rising unemployment rate of over 13% and the increasing emigration of Moroccan talent abroad, alongside profound demographic shifts occurring in the country.
The report highlights that Morocco’s demographic structure is rapidly aging, with the percentage of individuals over 60 years old rising from 9.4% in 2014 to 12.7% in 2023, and it is projected to reach 23.2% by 2050. Conversely, the youth population aged between 18 and 24 years, which is crucial for the labor market, is expected to decrease to 3.8 million individuals by 2050, representing a 10% drop compared to 2014.
These figures, according to the study, herald a significant imbalance in labor supply and pose increasing challenges for companies, including the burden of training new generations of workers and addressing the retirement pressures of a substantial number of employees. Furthermore, a sensitive sector such as healthcare will face rising demand for services aimed at elderly populations, leading to increased healthcare costs and greater pressure on public finances as universal health coverage is introduced.
The study also warned that Morocco will not be able to compensate for the loss of young talent through the recruitment of migrants from sub-Saharan Africa, given that it is primarily a transit country rather than a destination for settlement. This reality will compel employers to either retain older workers despite the challenges of upskilling them or rely on cheaper young labor while attempting to boost productivity.
Additionally, the informal sector presents another challenge, employing about 60% of the active population. This means that a significant number of workers will continue working into advanced age due to the lack of pension systems, which could negatively impact workforce quality and increase job market vulnerabilities. Meanwhile, unemployment will worsen among unskilled workers, while vital sectors such as digitalization, engineering, and healthcare will suffer from an escalating skills shortage due to ongoing brain drain.
