China is set to introduce 300,000 self-driving taxis in major cities by 2030
A study released by Swiss bank UBS predicts that the number of self-driving taxis in major cities in China will reach 300,000 vehicles by 2030, driven by advancements in artificial intelligence technologies and the competitive edge of the local electric vehicle industry.
Cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen have already launched operational trials for robotaxis. Key players in this sector include Baidu’s Apollo platform, along with self-driving specialists Pony.ai and WeRide. In Wuhan, Apollo operates one of the largest global networks, covering approximately 35% of the local road network with hundreds of driverless vehicles.
Nationally, UBS forecasts that the number of robotaxis will hit 4 million vehicles by the end of the decade. The development of technology and rising labor costs are expected to make these vehicles a vital tool for enhancing productivity, according to Paul Gong, the bank’s Chinese automobile research head.
A reduction in manufacturing costs is a key driver for growth, with the price of a single robotaxi potentially dropping to below 300,000 yuan (about $41,935), down from 500,000 yuan previously. These vehicles rely on Level 4 self-driving technology, allowing them to operate without human intervention in most situations according to SAE international standards.
If millions of traditional taxis and private vehicles are replaced by robotaxis, the market size could reach $183 billion annually, UBS states, while HSBC estimates that these vehicles could represent 6% of the Chinese market within the early years, generating over $40 billion annually, alongside an additional $30 billion from logistics and delivery services.
Chinese companies are aiming beyond the domestic market, with Pony.ai preparing for large-scale production of its self-driving vehicles and ramping up production starting in the second half of 2025, according to co-founder Lou Tiancheng.
