The government revises growth forecasts for 2025 and confirms continued control over inflation
Monitoring
The government has revised its growth forecasts for the national economy for the year 2025, with expectations of ongoing control over inflation rates. Nadia Fettah, Minister of Economy and Finance, confirmed during a meeting of the financial committees in both houses of Parliament that the non-agricultural Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth forecast has been raised to 4.4%, up from 4.0%, bringing the overall economic growth expectation to 4.5% compared to 4.1% in the previous update.
The decision is based on the strong performance recorded in the first quarter of 2025 and the improvement in leading indicators during the second quarter, in addition to the results of short-term forecasting models. The minister explained that the expected growth remains consistent with the assumptions of the 2025 finance law (4.6%), despite a slight change in the structure of growth.
Fettah noted that the first revision of growth expectations in March took into account a 23% decline in the area planted with cereals compared to the average of past years, which lowered the economic growth forecast to 4.1%. The Ministry of Agriculture later confirmed that cereal production reached 4.4 million quintals compared to the 7 million quintals that had been assumed.
Regarding inflation, the minister pointed to a continuous decline from February (2.6%) to June (0.4%), alongside falling oil prices, predicting that inflation will remain under control at 1.1% during 2025. However, she warned of potential risks of rising energy prices due to geopolitical shocks and climate conditions at the start of the upcoming agricultural season.
Fettah announced the launch of a new round of monetary easing through successive cuts in the Bank of Morocco’s main interest rate to 2.25%, although it remains above the level prior to the tightening cycle in September 2022 (1.5%).
The government expects to record a current account deficit of -2.2% and a budget deficit of -3.5%, with the treasury debt reaching 67% by the end of 2025.
The minister explained that the implementation of the 2025 finance law and the preparation of the upcoming finance law for 2026 occur within a complex international context characterized by uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, and a slowdown in global economic growth, in addition to the impacts of climate changes on the national economy.
She pointed to the resilience of public finances, thanks to the proactive measures and strategic choices of the government, ensuring the funding of social programs, investment support, and job creation, affirming the government’s commitment to implementing the royal directives and accelerating major reforms in line with the developments in the national and international context.
