Slowdown in Exports and Increase in Imports Pressure National Economy in the First Quarter of 2025
The High Commission for Planning has revealed that the growth rate of national exports of goods and services witnessed a slowdown in the first quarter of 2025, registering only 2.2% compared to 5.8% during the same period in 2024. In contrast, imports rose by 9.8%, up from 7.6% last year, leading to a negative contribution to growth of 4.7 points, compared to 3.7 points during the same period last year.
In a news memo sent to the "Telquel Arabi" website, the Commission explained that these developments in external trade negatively impacted national economic growth by approximately 3.8 points, compared to only 1.3 points a year earlier.
Conversely, domestic demand showed a clear improvement, increasing by 8% compared to 4% in the first quarter of 2024, contributing 8.5 points to growth instead of 4.3 points.
Final consumption expenditure by households rose by 4.4%, compared to 2.8% last year, contributing 2.6 points to growth. Additionally, gross fixed capital formation experienced strong growth of 17.5%, compared to 4.9%, contributing 4.9 points to growth versus 1.4 points previously.
Final consumption expenditure by public administrations experienced a slight slowdown, moving from 5.5% to 5.2%, contributing 0.9 points to economic growth, compared to one point last year.
Regarding Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the Commission reported an increase of 6.9% at current prices, compared to 6.8% during the same quarter of 2024, leading to a slowdown in the inflation rate to 2.1%, down from 3.8%.
In real terms, after adjusting for seasonal variations, GDP grew by 4.8%, compared to 3% the previous year. This improvement is attributed to a 6% rise in net taxes on products.
Non-agricultural activities recorded a growth of 4.6%, up from 3.6%, supported by positive performance in the tertiary sector, which rose from 3.8% to 4.7%, thanks to a 9.7% increase in hotel and restaurant activities, a 6.2% rise in education and health, a 5.3% increase in public administration, and a 4.3% boost in trade, alongside a slight recovery in real estate activities, which grew by 0.8% after a decline last year.
Conversely, some activities experienced a slowdown, such as transportation and storage (4% instead of 6.5%), business services (3.9%), and information and communication (only 0.5%).
The secondary sector grew by 4.5%, compared to 3.2%, thanks to an increase in construction and public works activities (6.3%), the water and electricity sector (5%), and the manufacturing industry (3.4%). Meanwhile, growth in extractive industries decreased to 6.7%, after reaching 19.1% in the same period last year.
In the primary sector, there was an improvement of 4.3%, following a decline of 4.3% the previous year, attributed to a recovery in agricultural activity by 4.5%, compared to a decrease of 5%, despite a slight decline in fishing activity by 0.3%.
National disposable income increased by 6%, compared to 5.9%, due to the rise in GDP value and a 7.5% drop in net income transferred from abroad.
Finally, amid a 6.7% rise in national consumption, the national savings rate remained steady at 26.8% of GDP, down from 27.6% recorded in the first quarter of 2024.
