At one time, the United States viewed the conflict between democracy and despotism as a central issue. This approach, shaped amidst World War II, created strong ties across the Atlantic. For several decades, American-European alliances were not only about security but also about shared ideology and values. This is why this relationship has endured for 80 years.
However, now, thanks to President Donald Trump, the world that existed just two months ago seems like a distant history. The nature of the West is rapidly changing before our eyes. The sudden and bewildering shift has caused many to cling to anything for stability. The new reality became evident when the United States joined Russia and some other authoritarian countries in voting against a United Nations General Assembly resolution condemning Russia’s aggression in Ukraine on the third anniversary of the full-scale invasion. That was a pivotal moment – a date that will be remembered with shame.
It is clear that the implications of the new American foreign policy are profound. No one can deny that the transatlantic security alliance is eroding. Political leaders may feel an obligation to publicly insist that old mutual defense commitments remain strong; however, they are fooling no one – not even themselves. The credibility of the alliance depends on the person in the White House, and that individual lacks credibility when it comes to transatlantic security issues.
Furthermore, we are witnessing a noticeable deviation from Trump’s first administration, which at least maintained the ideological alliance across the Atlantic to a large extent. Vice President J.D. Vance’s speech at the Munich Security Conference indicated that this time is different. His message sent shockwaves through European security, defense, and foreign policy circles. Not only did he downplay the importance of security issues that have been the cornerstone of NATO for three-quarters of a century, but he also redrew the ideological map in a way that pits Europe and the United States against each other. Suddenly, the United States appeared not as an ally but as an adversary.
The hardliners in the “Make America Great Again” (MAGA) movement, which form the core of the Trump administration, are engaged in a cultural war aimed at transforming American society. Their project is essentially a regressive counter-revolution against the liberal trends they believe have undermined their country. MAGA seeks a return to a more militaristic, conservative, and semi-isolationist version of American exceptionalism. Therefore, their central conflict is unrelated to the competition between democracy and despotism. Such words hardly appear in their narratives.
Given the nature of their cultural war project, MAGA views Europe as an adversary. Vance, aligning his rhetoric with far-right European extremists, argues that Europe is “at risk of civilizational suicide.” Similarly, Elon Musk, Trump’s leading financial backer and advisor, has publicly campaigned for far-right parties in Germany and the United Kingdom. Looking to the future, we will undoubtedly see more of this support in countries like Poland and Romania (where a court annulled the results of last year’s first round elections, citing Russian interference). Because MAGA ideologues see open and liberal European societies as extensions of their domestic adversaries, their support for non-liberal and anti-democratic forces makes perfect sense.
They also have a radically different view of Russia. It is no coincidence that their rhetoric often aligns with the discourse of President Vladimir Putin’s regime (sometimes word for word). Both MAGA and Putin advocate for aggressive nationalism and hostility toward liberal values; they endlessly speak of fluidity, the role of strong leaders, and powerful states in shaping the future. Whether in the Kremlin or the White House, the so-called globalists are the enemy.
While the Biden administration clearly wishes to change the regime in Russia – even if this is not articulated as an official political objective – the Trump administration wants to change the regime in Europe. Europe is no longer an ally but an enemy; and while Russia may not (yet) be a complete ally of the United States, it is also not an adversary. Putin’s regime has a greater ideological affinity with the current American administration than Europe can achieve.
If there is any hope for the transatlantic world, it lies in the fact that the United States is not united. Contrary to what he claims, Trump does not have a mandate to do what he is doing. However, with extreme polarization in American society, his political trajectory is not easy to predict. Even if a partial return to the old order remains possible, the forces driving the regressive counter-revolution will remain in place for years to come.
The world must take this into account and shape its policies accordingly. Europeans can hope for the best, but they must prepare for the worst. What once seemed impossible – an unhinged America – has now become a significant possibility.
