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The Greenland Crisis Deepens Europe’s Dependence on American Gas and Opens the Door to Geopolitical Risks
The escalation of the Greenland crisis, alongside an unprecedented deterioration in transatlantic relations, has raised new European concerns regarding energy security. This comes at a time when the European Union is projected to import nearly half of its gas needs from the United States by the end of this decade, placing it in a sensitive geopolitical dependency.
This shift occurs against the backdrop of a complete ban on Russian gas imports. Data published by Politico indicates that Europe currently imports about a quarter of its gas from the United States, a figure likely to rise as agreements for liquefied natural gas (LNG) with American companies expand.
Simultaneously, President Donald Trump’s remarks about annexing Greenland, which belongs to Denmark, and his threat to impose tariffs on several European countries, including France, Germany, Britain, and Denmark until a deal is struck regarding the island, have fueled fears of destabilizing NATO cohesion and prompted calls from Europe for a similar trade response.
Anna Maria Galler Makarevich, a senior energy analyst at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, warns that increasing reliance on American gas has created a “new high-risk geopolitical dependency.” She believes this direction contradicts the EU’s strategy to diversify energy sources, reduce demand, and accelerate the transition to renewable energy.
Within EU corridors, diplomatic concerns are growing that Washington may use this dependency as leverage in future political pressures, despite recognizing the existence of alternative global gas sources. A senior European diplomat acknowledges that, while the risk of supply cuts is unlikely, it should be considered in light of tensions surrounding Greenland.
Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the EU has successfully reduced its dependence on Russian gas from 50 percent in 2021 to around 12 percent today, according to data from the Bruegel Center, compensating for this with LNG, particularly from the U.S. Figures show that American gas now accounts for 27 percent of the EU’s imports, up from just 5 percent four years ago, with France, Spain, Italy, the Netherlands, and Belgium leading the importers.
Studies from the Institute for Energy Analysis and Financial Economics predict that the share of American LNG will rise to 40 percent of total European gas consumption by 2030 and approximately 80 percent of LNG imports, thanks to new agreements that include a European commitment to purchase U.S. energy products worth 750 billion euros.
Despite advancements in energy transition, natural gas still covers a quarter of Europe’s energy needs, whether for electricity generation, heating, or industry, placing the EU in a challenging equation between energy security requirements and high energy costs, making it difficult to relinquish relatively cheaper American gas.
In this context, European officials are counting on upcoming production projects in Qatar and the UAE post-2030, alongside extensive infrastructure reforms, including new pipelines linking Mediterranean countries with continental Europe, which could facilitate the flow of imported gas.
Conversely, a faction within the European Parliament believes the crisis highlights the need to accelerate the transition to renewable energy and energy efficiency. Socialist member Thomas Bellerin-Carlin asserts that gas demand is declining with the progress of the green transition, arguing that maintaining investments in clean energy could reduce reliance on American gas, even with the complete phase-out of Russian gas.
Despite varying stakes, European officials concede that the margin for maneuver is limited at this stage. One of them summarizes the situation by stating, “The dependency is undeniable, but there is no real alternative at the moment.”
