Putin with No Options
It is clear that the outcome of Russia’s war against Ukraine is significant not only for the future of these two countries but for all of Europe. The root cause of the conflict lies in Russian President Vladimir Putin’s obsession with restoring his country’s status as an imperial power. Historically, ancient Russia was a highly centralized empire, often referred to by Lenin as a “prison of nations.” In fact, Putin blames Lenin for the collapse of the old imperial order and for allowing Ukraine to forge its own path.
However, Putin has not made significant progress in achieving his vision. When he sent over 100,000 soldiers into Ukraine in February 2022, most observers—including many Western experts well-acquainted with the Russian military—expected a swift victory. Yet, after three and a half years, most of the initial invasion force has vanished. While he may now have three times the number of newly recruited soldiers along the front lines, he controls less than 20% of Ukraine’s territory.
No one anticipated the Russian army would perform so poorly, and the question now is whether Putin has any way to win the war. His first option is to continue pursuing his original aim: to inflict a clear military defeat on Ukraine. But the nature of warfare has drastically changed in recent years. With rapid technological advancements on both sides, defense has become stronger than attack. Holding territory is far easier than capturing more.
While Ukraine has gained a technological edge, Russia is catching up quickly. Both sides have increasingly targeted each other’s critical energy infrastructure. However, the likelihood of the Russian army defeating the Ukrainian forces is extremely low. Putin boasts about gradual progress—like when he recently gathered his leaders in Saint Petersburg to lay flowers on Peter the Great’s grave—but these gains lack significant strategic importance. For nearly two years, the Russian army has failed to carry out any significant offensive operations, and there are few signs this will change.
Putin’s second option was to persuade U.S. President Donald Trump to impose a settlement favorable to Russia, akin to the agreement Hitler made with Neville Chamberlain and Édouard Daladier in 1938 to gain a part of Czechoslovakia. This is why Putin invested heavily in flattering Trump and hinted at various financial incentives such as new investments in Russian natural resources. He almost succeeded. Putin was close to getting what he wanted during the disastrous meeting with Trump in Alaska, but European leaders soon intervened, and their subsequent support for Ukraine effectively blocked this option.
A third path to victory is to buy time and hope that European support fades. With a significant reduction in American financial and military aid to Ukraine during Trump’s presidency, the entire burden now falls on Europeans (and few others). This is no trivial matter. We are talking about €60-80 billion ($70-93 billion) per year, or 0.2-0.3% of European GDP.
However, European political support for Ukraine is strong. While countries suffering from financial distress like France, Spain, and Italy are unlikely to contribute much financially, Norway, which has greatly benefited from soaring energy prices due to the war, is capable of compensating for a significant portion of the lost U.S. funding. Moreover, a proposal to provide a €140 billion loan to Ukraine, backed by frozen Russian assets in Belgium, could support Ukraine’s economy and defense production. Although the proposed plan is complex, it is certainly feasible if sufficient political will is present.
If the Russian army fails to achieve victory, and if Trump cannot compel Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to yield as long as European financial support continues, the Kremlin will have no viable path to victory. Although Russian leadership appears completely unaware of this reality, the end is inevitable.
Of course, what happens next remains an open question. Putin might attempt to escalate, even though he lacks good options to do so. Or he may eventually agree to a ceasefire and try to present it as a victory. However, any end to the war—or its active phase—in which Ukraine retains its sovereignty and independence would constitute a loss for Putin. While land has clear significance, sovereignty is the fundamental issue.
After that, securing and rebuilding a sovereign Ukraine will be a challenging but certainly not impossible task. This process will involve joining the European Union, undertaking deep economic reforms, and adopting a strong defensive posture to deter any future aggression.
In this scenario, the only viable course for the current Kremlin leadership is to abandon its imperial dream and focus on strengthening Russia as a nation-state among many. The sooner those in power reach this understanding, the better it will be for Russia and its neighbors.
