Iran’s Nuclear Program: Between Wide-reaching Sanctions and Political Complexities
The United Nations reinstated sanctions on Iran due to its nuclear program on Sunday, placing Tehran under new pressures amid escalating tensions in the Middle East against the backdrop of the Israeli war on Gaza.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi made a last-ditch diplomatic effort during this week’s UN General Assembly meetings in New York to halt the sanctions. However, Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei restricted their actions, branding diplomacy with the United States as a “completely dead-end road.” Simultaneously, efforts by China and Russia to halt the sanctions also failed.
The 30-day countdown for imposing sanctions began on August 28, when France, Germany, and Britain—known as the European troika—deemed that Iran was not adhering to the 2015 nuclear agreement with world powers.
In response, Tehran claimed that the agreement became void after the United States unilaterally withdrew in 2018 during Donald Trump’s first term as President.
Since then, Iran has significantly reduced inspections required by the International Atomic Energy Agency, especially following the Israeli-led war against it last June, which lasted 12 days and involved American and Israeli bombings of key Iranian nuclear sites.
On Friday, Araghchi commented in New York regarding the sanctions: “We do not believe they will affect the Iranian people, especially their resolve to defend their rights,” despite the existing pressures on the country’s economy. He added that the sanctions affect “diplomacy,” stating, “They close the pathway to diplomacy.”
What is the “Snapback” Mechanism and How Does It Work?
The “snapback” mechanism, as diplomats who negotiated its inclusion in the 2015 nuclear agreement refer to it, was designed to be immune from a veto in the UN Security Council and is triggered 30 days after notifying the council that Iran is not complying with the agreement’s terms.
This mechanism reinstates the freezing of Iranian assets abroad, halts arms deals with Tehran, and imposes sanctions on any development of Iran’s ballistic missile program, among other measures. The validity of imposing “snapback” was set to expire on October 18, which likely prompted European countries to activate it before losing this tool.
After this, any attempt to reimpose sanctions would face a veto from China and Russia, both permanent members of the Security Council that have previously supported Iran.
China remains a major importer of Iranian crude oil, an aspect that could be affected by the activation of the “snapback” mechanism, while Russia relies on Iranian drones in the Ukraine war.
Why Does the West Worry About Iran’s Nuclear Program?
For decades, Iran has asserted the peaceful nature of its nuclear program, yet its officials increasingly threaten to pursue nuclear weapons. Iran is the only country in the world without a nuclear weapons program, yet it enriches uranium to levels close to those required for weapon production.
Under the original nuclear agreement signed in 2015, Iran was permitted to enrich uranium up to a purity of 3.67% and to maintain a stockpile not exceeding 300 kilograms.
However, the International Atomic Energy Agency estimated Iran’s uranium stockpile prior to the outbreak of the war last June at about 9,874.9 kilograms, including 440.9 kilograms enriched up to 60%—a quantity that could enable Tehran to produce several nuclear weapons if it decides to pursue that path, as the enrichment level required for manufacturing a nuclear weapon is 90%.
U.S. intelligence agencies estimate that Iran has not yet initiated a weapon manufacturing program, but it “has undertaken activities that place it in a better position to produce a nuclear weapon if it chooses to do so.”
American-Israeli Targeting of Nuclear Facilities
The Natanz nuclear facility, located about 220 kilometers southeast of Tehran, is Iran’s main uranium enrichment site and has been a target of Israeli airstrikes before being struck by the U.S. last June.
Uranium was enriched at the site up to a purity of 60%, a step short of weapon-grade level, before Israel destroyed the upper part of the facility, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency.
Another part of the facility lies underground in Iran’s central plateau to protect it from airstrikes, housing several “chains” of centrifuges working together to accelerate the enrichment process.
The International Atomic Energy Agency reported that it believes most of these devices, if not all of them, were destroyed by an Israeli strike that cut off power to the site. The U.S. also dropped bunker buster bombs on the facility, likely causing significant damage.
The Fordow uranium enrichment facility, located about 100 kilometers southwest of Tehran, also suffered a similar U.S. bombing using bunker buster bombs. Additionally, the U.S. targeted the Isfahan nuclear technology facility with smaller munitions.
Israel, separately, targeted other sites linked to Iran’s nuclear program, including the Arak heavy water reactor.
Why Have Relations with the United States Tensed?
Once a key U.S. ally in the Middle East under Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, who bought American military weapons and allowed CIA technicians to run secret listening posts to monitor the neighboring Soviet Union, Iran’s ties with the U.S. soured dramatically. The CIA supported a “coup” in 1953 that solidified the Shah’s reign.
However, in January 1979, the ailing Shah fled the country amid rising public protests against his regime. This was followed by the “Islamic Revolution” led by Khomeini.
Later that same year, university students stormed the U.S. embassy in Tehran demanding the return of the Shah, triggering a 444-day hostage crisis that severed diplomatic relations between Tehran and Washington.
During the Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s, the U.S. backed Iraqi President Saddam Hussein. The U.S. forces conducted a one-day naval attack that severely damaged Iranian forces in what became known as the “Tanker War,” and later shot down an Iranian civilian passenger plane after claiming to have misidentified it as a military aircraft.
Since then, the relationship between Iran and the U.S. has oscillated between intense animosity and cautious diplomacy, peaking with the signing of the nuclear agreement in 2015, but Trump unilaterally withdrew from the agreement in 2018.
