Trump the Submissive
Stockholm – Can U.S. President Donald Trump really broker peace between Russia and Ukraine, or are we looking at a repeat of the infamous Munich Agreement? When Britain and France forced Czechoslovakia to cede the Sudetenland to Nazi Germany in 1938, they believed it would ensure lasting peace. However, appeasing the revisionist aggressor had the opposite effect, setting the stage for another world war just a year later.
If peace means resolving all the issues currently dividing Russia and Ukraine, the likelihood of achieving such an outcome is extremely slim. The root of the war lies in Russian President Vladimir Putin’s determination to prevent Ukraine from becoming an “anti-Russian” state, specifically by forcing it back under Kremlin control. A sovereign and democratic Ukraine that has sought to cooperate and integrate with the West is fundamentally incompatible with what Putin considers his historical duty. He has long asserted that the collapse of the Soviet Union was a disaster and that Ukraine is not, in fact, an independent nation-state.
This means that a true peace between Russia and Ukraine will likely not be possible until Putin leaves the Kremlin and a more realistic vision for the future of Russia gains influence there. Nothing of this sort appears imminent. However, if peace is not achievable in the near term, a ceasefire and the initiation of a political process to ease tensions may be possible.
It is clear that Trump’s promise to end the war in 24 hours was never serious. He now faces a challenge that will take several months, not just a few hours. Putin has previously made it clear that he will not accept a ceasefire that does not result in territorial expansion for Russia and political and military subjugation of Ukraine. He will now seek to extract as many gains as possible from a direct meeting with Trump, and based on their previous encounters, his aggressive approach could pay off. Let us recall Trump’s private meeting with Putin in Helsinki in 2018, when he declared that his trust in the Russian leader was greater than his trust in his own intelligence agencies.
But can Trump really hand Ukraine over to Putin?
In September 1938, Czechoslovakia had no choice about what happened to it. It wasn’t even at the negotiating table in Munich, where Adolf Hitler convinced French and British leaders to accept the dismemberment of the country. Within six months, Hitler violated the agreement, and German tanks were rumbling toward Prague. The fact is that both Trump and Putin are equally determined to keep Ukraine off the negotiation table. Their intent seems to be to carve out an agreement and then force Ukraine to accept its terms.
Putin will likely be extremely ambitious in his demands because he knows this is his great opportunity. In his initial attempt, Trump will probably seek a direct and clear ceasefire, followed by political talks. But Putin will want more. He will not only insist on his original demands but will also call for the easing of Western sanctions. The danger, of course, is that he will overestimate his hand and demand more than Trump believes he can deliver.
However, even if Putin resists this temptation and the two men agree on regional and political terms, it is by no means certain that Trump could force Ukraine to accept them. In 1938, Czechoslovakia chose to refrain from fighting because its military prospects were fundamentally dismal. But Ukraine is not in that position. The chances of it simply swallowing blatantly unjust and unreasonable demands are slim to none.
The war has indeed drained Ukraine after years of attrition and regular Russian strikes on civilians and critical infrastructure. But Ukrainians also understand what is at stake. In February 2022, nearly everyone assumed they would collapse under Russian pressure within just days or weeks. Now, three years later, Russia controls only about 19% of Ukrainian territory. Moreover, Ukraine itself has reclaimed land in the Kursk region of Russia.
While the stakes threaten Ukraine’s existence, they are also extraordinarily high for the rest of Europe. If a U.S. president not only refuses to acknowledge blatant acts of aggression but also seeks to compel the victim to submit, a significant amount of what NATO stands for could evaporate into thin air. Will the United States rush to defend the Baltic states or other vulnerable NATO members?
The risks extend beyond Europe. What could happen to NATO’s security guarantees and alliances in Asia and elsewhere? If the United States is unwilling to defend Ukraine, will it really defend Taiwan?
We are headed into troubled times. We now must contend with a new and powerful source of global instability – the U.S. government.
