Coface: Global Growth Slowing to 2.6% in 2026 Amid Rising Risks
Coface, a reference player in the field of commercial credit risk management for over seventy-five years, supports nearly one hundred thousand companies across approximately two hundred markets through solutions including credit risk insurance, information services, debt collection, guarantees, and factoring. Relying on its network of experts and analytical databases, Coface periodically issues precise assessments regarding the evolution of economic and sectoral risks worldwide.
In its latest report, the group projected that the global economy will start 2026 with a growth rate of 2.6%, reflecting a slight decline from the 2.8% recorded in 2025, under conditions marked by increasing geopolitical, financial, and social risks.
Coface made seven adjustments to country ratings, including six changes in classification categories, along with nine adjustments to sector evaluations that involved seven reclassifications, indicating tangible shifts in the global risk landscape.
Global trade outperformed expectations in 2025, with exchange volumes rising by 3.9%, driven by robust U.S. imports and less severe average tariffs than anticipated. However, 2026 begins in an environment characterized by mounting pressures, both geopolitically with extended tensions across various regions, and financially due to rising debt levels and persistently high interest rates.
Regionally, dynamics vary among major economies; growth in the United States is supported by strong domestic consumption despite rising corporate bankruptcies, while growth in the Eurozone is expected to remain limited, contrasting with stronger dynamics in some Central European and Asian economies, as India continues to play a pivotal role in global growth.
The report reflects a global economy maintaining a degree of cohesion, despite a relative slowdown in growth pace and multiple sources of risk, making 2026 a new testing phase for economic actors’ ability to adapt in a rapidly changing international environment.
