How the Thirtieth Conference of the Parties Revives Climate Action
It is hard to imagine a more fitting location for this year’s United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP30) than the tropical city of Belém in Brazil. Delegates from around the world will gather on the edge of the Amazon—a frontline in the battle against climate change vulnerability. About 40% of the city’s population lives below sea level, and roughly 82% of residents walk the streets with little shade. Heat and humidity dictate their daily lives, and nature directly sustains their existence.
However, as COP30 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change kicks off, it is futile to pretend that governments are rising to the occasion. The latest report from the United Nations Environment Programme on the emissions gap makes it clear that, without stronger government measures, we will inevitably face temperatures that compromise crops, escalate urban heat, hinder economies, and dramatically increase human losses. This is the reality awaiting policymakers in Belém, and they must feel a collective responsibility to address this alarming gap between what countries have put on the table and what is urgently needed. Achieving climate safety will not be easy. But acknowledging how far we’ve come should inspire hope that we can bridge the remaining distance. From 2005 to 2015, power generation from oil, gas, and coal accounted for 68% of global electricity demand growth. In the period from 2015 to 2025, renewable energy sources will represent 67% of the increase in demand.
In China, President Xi Jinping has expressed his intention to use the upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan to “accelerate” the construction of a new energy system and enhance safe and organized replacements for fossil fuel-derived energy. In India, renewable energy sources met 51.5% of total electricity demand in July this year. In the European Union, GDP grew by almost 68% from 1990 to 2023, while net greenhouse gas emissions decreased by nearly 37%, according to preliminary data.
The decline in renewable energy costs, electric vehicles, and battery storage paves the way for governments, civil society, and local leaders to tackle the challenge of climate safety. The alternative—indifference and defeat—is not an option.
So, what needs to happen at COP30? First, governments must reaffirm the Paris Agreement and its goal to limit the increase in global average temperature to well below 2°C, preferably to 1.5°C, above pre-industrial levels. Amid the Trump administration’s push to slow the phase-out of fossil fuels, this reaffirmation would send an important signal to investors and planners worldwide.
Second, governments should accelerate the implementation of what has already been agreed upon. The Global Stocktake report issued from Dubai in 2023 urged countries to triple their renewable energy capacity, double energy efficiency, enhance a just transition away from fossil fuels, and halt (and then reverse) deforestation by 2030. These goals were hard-won; now they must be pursued with the necessary speed and scale.
As Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva stated on the first day of COP30, governments are capable of developing a roadmap detailing various paths for a just transition away from fossil fuels, which requires agreement on what a just transition should entail. Governments are also capable of complementing this with initiatives to overcome barriers to utilizing renewable energy sources, such as commitments to invest in electrical grids and battery storage. A similar approach could set a path towards achieving the goal of halting deforestation by 2030.
As the host country for COP30, the Brazilian government is already calling for the summit to “accelerate the implementation of the Global Stocktake.” We need to turn this motto into tangible progress by adopting a forward-looking action plan that outlines the paths, policies, and supporting measures necessary to bridge the gap in achieving the 1.5°C target set by the Paris Agreement.
However, doubling our efforts is not just about speeding up progress where it is slow; it’s also about capitalizing on the rapid transitions that are taking place—creating jobs and economic growth—across many regions. The progress made in recent years is unmistakable: the use of wind and solar energy has more than tripled since 2015, and the electric vehicle industry has grown from less than 1% at that time to over 20% today.
Third, countries should clarify how they plan to align their current actions with what is needed to reach net-zero emissions. This is important because many countries have recently made new climate commitments that appear insufficient to achieve the target of net-zero emissions either by 2050 or beyond.
Of course, securing finance and investment remains a critical necessity for developing countries to enable them to decarbonize and enhance climate resilience. COP30 can make real progress by securing commitments to mobilize additional resources for the most vulnerable countries to help them adapt to rising sea levels, severe storms, extended heat waves, and other consequences of climate change.
The Brazilian hosts have put forward an ambitious agenda, but the crucial test lies in whether the world will take the steps necessary to close the widening gap toward the 1.5-degree target. From Lula’s perspective, securing this victory will cement his legacy as a champion for people worldwide, who will suffer the most if we fail to accomplish this task.
