According to the High Commission for Planning, the national economy is expected to grow at a rate of 3.8% during the second quarter of 2025.
The Commission clarified in its economic situation report for the fourth quarter of 2024 and forecasts for the first and second quarters of 2025 that this growth is attributed to a shift towards increased agricultural activity and the resilience of the service sector, with internal demand anticipated to remain the primary driver of economic growth.
According to the same source, manufacturing activity is expected to evolve in a less supportive international context; however, it will be driven by an enhancement in food and construction industries. Additionally, momentum in the construction sector is predicted to remain strong, fueled by a continuous rise in public works demand.
Overall, internal demand is expected to continue being the main driving force of economic growth during the second quarter of 2025, with consumer and investment spending projected to expand at steady rates of 4.2% and 5.1%, respectively, supported by favorable fiscal and monetary policies.
The negative impact of external trade contributions to overall economic growth is expected to stabilize, as both exports and imports are anticipated to slow down. However, their effect on growth will be less than at the end of 2024.
Nevertheless, the recent decision to postpone for ninety days the implementation of announced tariff increases, applicable to all concerned countries except China, may temporarily alleviate the direct impact on global economic activity.
Despite this postponement, some expected repercussions have begun to emerge, particularly through fluctuations in energy raw material prices and growing pressures on industrial activity, especially in Europe, along with disturbances in global financial markets.
The Commission indicated that “the forecast scenario for the second quarter of 2025 does not rely on all developments related to these repercussions, as it continues to expand up to the completion of this scenario amid ongoing interactions of economies and the evolution of production policies among major industrial companies,” noting that the potential to contain these repercussions remains present in the short term among partners.
