Monitoring
Global concerns are growing regarding the repercussions of ongoing geopolitical tensions on food supply chains, as farmers worldwide are expected to adjust their production practices. This could negatively impact agricultural productivity and pose significant challenges to food security. In this context, Morocco stands out as one of the countries most vulnerable to these fluctuations, given its heavy reliance on importing several essential commodities, particularly grains, vegetable oils, and sugar.
The national economy faces real risks related to rising prices in international markets. Wheat imports registered a 12% increase between June 2025 and January 2026, amid challenging climatic conditions characterized by severe drought, which directly affected local production. Additionally, the continuous rise in fertilizer prices poses a further threat to the upcoming agricultural season, especially for grains that are a core component of the kingdom’s food security.
Despite this situation, Morocco possesses some strengths that could mitigate the impact of external influences. The country is a key player in the phosphate fertilizer market through the OCP Group, allowing it to partially benefit from higher phosphate prices at the export level. However, this balance remains fragile, as the local industry relies on importing essential raw materials, such as sulfur from Gulf countries, which could limit production capacity if supply constraints persist, despite the availability of strategic reserves.
In light of these challenges, various sectors of the agricultural industry seem to have opted for a proactive approach to avoid repeating past crises. The Moroccan Confederation of Agriculture and Rural Development held a national conference in Salé, bringing together stakeholders from government sectors, public institutions, professionals, and experts. This meeting served as an opportunity to accurately diagnose the situation of the grain supply chain and reach practical agreements aimed at enhancing national production and reinforcing food sovereignty.
Among the notable outcomes of this gathering was an agreement regarding the organization of the collection and marketing of local soft wheat, reflecting a shared commitment to improving market governance and ensuring a better balance between supply and demand. A number of strategic priorities were emphasized, including increasing productivity and enhancing the sector’s capacity to adapt to climate changes, updating storage and logistics systems, and improving transaction transparency to ensure long-term market stability.
This dynamic emerges at a time when prices for several essential goods are continuing to rise, driven by increased energy costs and the repercussions of conditions in the Middle East, which has started to affect citizens’ purchasing power. This situation also places additional pressure on public finances, particularly concerning support expenditures, with expectations that allocations in the 2026 finance law, set at 13.8 billion dirhams, will exceed initial estimates due to the continued rise in sugar, wheat, and energy prices.
In conclusion, Morocco finds itself facing a complex equation that combines increasing external challenges with pressing internal concerns. However, current indicators suggest a growing awareness of the need to transition from a reactive approach to crises toward proactive and strategic planning. The greatest challenge remains translating this consensus into tangible actions on the ground before the upcoming agricultural campaign is adversely affected in a way that is difficult to reverse.
