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Energy Shock Redraws the Map of Global Markets: Oil Rebounds, Gas Surges, and Gold Declines
Global commodity markets are witnessing a noticeable shift in recent days, with energy becoming the decisive factor in shaping trends, surpassing the influence of precious metals and grains. Between March 25 and 26, the oil market regained its upward momentum, while the gas sector entered an unprecedented state of tension, with this upheaval gradually reflecting on other market components, especially as disruptions related to global energy flows continue, prominently caused by tensions in the Strait of Hormuz.
In this context, oil prices have started to rise again after sharp fluctuations, with Brent crude gaining nearly 2% to settle above $104 per barrel, while American crude climbed to over $92. This performance reflects a sense of anticipation and concern within the market, fueled by several factors including a decline in Russian exports, reduced Iraqi production, and rising U.S. inventories. Additionally, discussions about a potential intervention by the International Energy Agency through the release of additional reserves indicate the level of pressure facing the oil market amid geopolitical risks.
However, the greatest tension is evident in the gas market, which has become the weakest link in the energy system, particularly within the European Union. Prices have soared more than 60% since the beginning of the crisis, surpassing €50 per megawatt-hour, amid a continued reliance on gas as part of the European energy mix. On a global scale, pressures have intensified as liquefied natural gas prices in Asia have sharply increased due to supply disruptions, pushing countries to accelerate efforts to diversify their energy sources in a bid to avoid larger shocks in the future.
Conversely, gold and other precious metal prices have dropped under the pressure of tightening monetary policy expectations, as investors begin to reassess their bets on inflation and interest rates, particularly with the U.S. Federal Reserve heading towards a potential interest rate hike. Moreover, the repercussions of the energy crisis are starting to extend into the agricultural sector through rising fuel and fertilizer costs, prompting some farmers to adjust their crop selections. This is a clear indication that the energy shock is no longer a temporary situation but has entered a phase of structural impact on various economic sectors.
