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A Path to Global Prosperity by 2100
Marc Canal Noguera: Senior Fellow at the McKinsey Global Institute
Nick Leung: Senior Partner at McKinsey & Company and Director of the McKinsey Global Institute
Chris Bradley: Senior Fellow at McKinsey & Company and Director of the McKinsey Global Institute
It seems clear that new geopolitical and planetary crises are dominating the headlines, deepening the sense of pessimism regarding the state of humanity. However, when we reflect on the events of the past century, a completely different picture emerges — one of unprecedented human progress.
One hundred years ago, life was fragile and insecure. The average person could expect to live between 30 and 40 years, with one in three children dying before the age of five. About 60% of the world’s population lived in extreme poverty, while only a third could read or write.
Today, the global average life expectancy has risen to 73 years, and less than 10% of the world’s population lives in extreme poverty. Nearly 90% are literate. Standards of living have transformed dramatically. After centuries of stagnation, per capita income doubled in the 19th century and then surged sixfold between 1925 and now.
But what if we measure progress by the ability to live safely with multiple choices, as opposed to just existing? In this case, the work required is considerably greater, as nearly 4.7 billion people still live below what we call the empowerment line.
In short, the world has made astounding progress, but we need much more of it.
With that in mind, our new book, “A Century of Plenty: A Story of Progress for Future Generations,” offers an ambitious vision: by 2100, the poorest populations in the world will be able to live as people do in Switzerland today. With its high income, longer life expectancy, quality education, and strong social support, Switzerland may well be the best example of a country enjoying “abundance.”
Considering Switzerland as the baseline may seem an extreme proposition, but it is not. Per capita global GDP will need to grow by 2.6% annually — slightly faster than the average annual growth rate of 2.3% over the past quarter-century. In the world of abundance we envision, the population would reach 12 billion, with some countries recovering from very low fertility rates and the global economy expanding to about 8.5 times its current size.
With advancements in artificial intelligence and other leading technologies, and a growing number of educated individuals, this outcome becomes increasingly plausible. However, progress requires more than just innovation. A significant portion of the anticipated growth will come from emerging economies, which can make great strides toward catching up with advanced economies by investing in current technologies and infrastructure.
In addition to productivity-enhancing strategies, achieving the next leap in economic prosperity requires addressing some “fundamentals,” the most crucial of which is energy. To increase economic opportunities, we need a far larger carbon-free energy system. According to our calculations, global energy production must be 2-3 times the current level, while clean electricity generation should be around thirty times higher than the current level.
This can be achieved by massively building and deploying existing technologies while continuing to innovate. Implementing such an approach, of course, will be challenging. However, it is not impossible. Over the past decade, China has increased its combined production of solar, wind, and nuclear energy tenfold, far exceeding the pace needed for a world of abundance. In the United States, shale oil, which was not considered a source of energy two decades ago, now contributes to energy production at rates greater than those of conventional oil and gas combined. Long before that, France was building a nuclear power-based electricity system in the 1970s.
Another crucial form of fuel — albeit for humans — is food. Our work illustrates that a population of up to 12 billion can enjoy a protein-rich diet without requiring additional land, with an increase in agricultural production much smaller than what has been achieved since the 1960s.
The century of abundance is not limited by geology. The Earth possesses enough natural resources to support this expansion. For instance, our estimates suggest that achieving abundance by 2100 will require 134 billion tons of steel. The known sources of iron content (the main input in steel manufacturing) today amount to 230 billion tons, of which 88 billion tons — two-thirds of the required quantity — are classified as economically extractable reserves. These reserves have been growing by about 1% annually for the past 30 years, compensating for any shortfalls.
The same applies to other key materials: none will need to exceed historical growth rates to turn our vision into reality. Our estimates are, in fact, conservative — it is entirely likely that new materials and technologies will be developed during this period.
Some observers argue that the planet may not be able to withstand the externalities resulting from this growth, particularly the increase in emissions from greenhouse gases. However, we view the issue from a different perspective. A prosperous world is better positioned to tackle climate change and other environmental issues, such as air pollution, because growth stimulates investment in the transition to clean energy (such as electrical grids, renewable sources, and batteries) and adaptation tools (such as air conditioning systems and irrigation networks), as well as research and development projects. As long as the fruits of growth are used to accelerate the decoupling of emissions from GDP, as most of the world is already doing, we can limit the rise in global temperatures due to greenhouse gas emissions to around 2 degrees Celsius while improving the living standards of millions.
In summary, there are no insurmountable physical barriers to achieving widespread prosperity. However, we do not suggest that realizing our vision of abundance will be easy. The constraints may not be physical, but they could be social and political: in hearts and minds. The most glaring issue is that many people in advanced economies — who, by definition, have reaped the benefits of growth — no longer believe in material progress. In a recent survey, only 9% of participants in France said that the next generation would be better off, and no advanced economy, except Singapore, recorded a higher rate than 30%.
This underscores the need for a new vision that rejects zero-sum thinking (where one winning party equals another losing party). The truth is that growth is the solution, not the problem. Over the past century, growth has led to higher incomes and longer lives, while empowering millions. Looking to the future, we must not allow one person’s gain to be another’s loss. Instead, we should embrace the challenge and envision a world where everyone thrives. Such a world is within reach as long as we focus on economic progress.
