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Morocco among 5 African Economies Leading the “Rating Revolution” in 2026
Major African economies are entering 2026 with a growth momentum that is reshaping the credit rating landscape on the continent, with forecasts predicting that ratings will reach their highest levels since 2020, according to estimates from Standard & Poor’s. This trajectory is based on improved growth prospects, declining inflationary pressures, and a relative drop in financing costs, alongside the ongoing implementation of financial reform programs in several countries.
The agency expects that the average real GDP growth in Africa will be around 4.5% in 2026, with a limited improvement in public finance conditions, as the average budget deficit is projected to decline to 3.5% of GDP, compared to 3.7% in 2025. However, this improvement remains surrounded by existing risks, primarily due to rising debt levels and external financing pressures.
In 2025, sovereign upgrades were recorded for Egypt, Ghana, Kenya, Morocco, South Africa, Togo, and Zambia, with Morocco’s rating raised to investment grade, increasing the number of African countries rated in the investment category to four.
Conversely, debt remains a significant source of concern, as external government debt payments for rated African countries are expected to exceed $90 billion in 2026, with Egypt accounting for about $27 billion of this total, followed by Angola, South Africa, and Nigeria. The average government debt is projected to stabilize at around 61% of GDP, with little change compared to 2025, due to accumulated deficits and a weak tax base.
Diverse Paths to Improvement
In South Africa, the positive outlook reflects a gradual improvement in economic and financial performance in the post-COVID phase, supported by a fiscal consolidation path and reforms aimed at containing debt and boosting growth. The International Monetary Fund predicts that the country’s GDP will reach around $410 billion by 2025.
Meanwhile, Egypt is managing a delicate balance between improved growth prospects and developments in its balance of payments while facing ongoing pressures related to public finance deficits and rising debt, including external trade commitments. IMF estimates suggest that GDP may reach $347 billion.
In Nigeria, the outlook is based on the continued implementation of structural reforms supporting growth, despite expectations for a budget deficit to widen to about 4% in 2026 amid fluctuating oil prices and increased capital expenditure. GDP is estimated at around $188 billion in 2025.
For Morocco, the agency sees that Rabat is balancing the momentum of structural reforms and budgetary control with challenges such as high unemployment and declining per capita income. GDP is likely to reach approximately $166 billion, with potential for additional support for its rating should growth accelerate and financial performance improve or if it moves towards a more flexible exchange rate system.
In Kenya, the stable outlook reflects a decrease in short-term external liquidity risks supported by an increase in foreign reserves to about $12 billion, despite ongoing high debt servicing costs exceeding 30% of government revenues, with GDP estimated at around $132 billion.
Deep Reforms for Sustainability
Experts note that improvements in credit ratings do not necessarily equate to an immediate enhancement in living standards, but mainly reflect reduced lending risks for international investors. They assert that converting this momentum into long-term growth requires deeper structural reforms, including broadening the tax base, curbing corruption, directing investments toward productive activities, and more efficient management of natural resources.
Amid rising social pressures and increasing costs of debt servicing, maintaining a trajectory of credit improvement hinges on governments’ ability to achieve a delicate balance between fiscal discipline and meeting social demands, thereby ensuring the sustainability of gains and strengthening economies against external shocks.
