What Do Africans Want from the Thirtieth COP?
Carlos Lopes: The Special Envoy for Africa at the Thirtieth COP, he is the Chair of the African Climate Foundation and a professor at the Nelson Mandela School of Public Governance at the University of Cape Town.
The upcoming United Nations climate change conference (COP30) will be the first held in the Amazon region, sending a powerful symbolic message about the central role that developing economies must play in the global response to the climate crisis. However, amid geopolitical fragmentation and declining trust in multilateralism, symbolism alone will not suffice. Developing economies must engage in planning and driving the green transformation forward. Africa is no exception.
So far, the narrative around climate in Africa has been that of a victim: the continent contributes less than 4% of greenhouse gas emissions, yet it is highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. This disparity has fueled demands for “climate justice,” leading to ambitious commitments for climate finance from industrialized economies at previous COPs. However, with those commitments unfulfilled and Africa’s urgent need for climate finance escalating, it has become clear that moral appeals are insufficient.
Now, the discourse is shifting toward a more strategic approach. The second African Climate Summit held in Addis Ababa last month positioned Africa as a unified player capable of shaping global climate negotiations. It also resulted in several initiatives, such as the African Climate Innovation Charter and the African Climate Facility, promising to enhance Africa’s standing in efforts to secure a sustainable future.
Instead of waiting for aid, Africa is now seeking to attract investments in its green transformation—not because wealthy nations owe it, though they do, but because Africa is capable of helping the world confront climate change. Success, however, requires progress on four fronts, all of which will be addressed at COP30.
The first is the cost of capital. Due to systemic biases embedded in credit rating methodologies and global regulatory frameworks, African countries face the highest borrowing costs in the world. This deters private capital, without which widespread funding for climate action is unattainable. While multilateral development banks can help bridge the gap, they typically prefer loans—which exacerbate the enormous debt burdens already facing African nations—over grants.
At COP29, developed economies agreed to mobilize at least $300 billion annually for climate action in developing countries by 2035, as part of a broader goal adopted by all stakeholders to rally at least $1.3 trillion per year. If these targets are to be achieved, systemic reform is essential. This includes making changes to the governance of multilateral development banks to ensure African countries have a louder voice and increasing grant-based funding. Reform must also involve acknowledging African financial institutions as preferred creditors and nurturing a new financial architecture led by Africa that reduces the cost of capital.
The second area where progress is essential is carbon markets. Despite its enormous potential for nature-based climate solutions, Africa controls only 16% of the global carbon credit market. Moreover, projects are largely unregulated and poorly priced, with limited community participation. Africa now faces the risk of falling into a familiar trap: providing cheap offsets for emissions generated elsewhere, while offering minimal benefits to its peoples.
While some African countries are developing their own regulatory frameworks for carbon markets, a fragmented system will have limited impact. What Africa needs is an integrated carbon market, governed by Africans, to ensure project quality, set fair prices, and direct revenues toward local development priorities, including environmental conservation, renewable energy, and resilient agriculture. This system should be linked to Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, which aims to facilitate the voluntary trading of carbon credits between countries.
The third necessity for Africa at COP30 is redefining adaptation. Instead of treating it primarily as a humanitarian project, governments should integrate adaptation into their industrial policies. Ultimately, investing in climate-resilient agriculture, infrastructure, and water systems generates jobs, stimulates creativity, and fosters market integration.
By linking adaptation with manufacturing, Africa can continue what it started at the second African Climate Summit, transforming the narrative from vulnerability to value creation. Africa should push for this approach to be reflected in the global adaptation goal indicators, which are set to be finalized at COP30. The continent’s leaders must also advocate for integrating adaptation funding into broader trade and technology frameworks.
Africa’s final priority at COP30 lies in critical minerals. Africa possesses about 85% of the world’s manganese, 80% of platinum and chromium, 47% of cobalt, 21% of graphite, and 6% of copper. In 2022, the Democratic Republic of the Congo alone accounted for over 70% of global cobalt production.
However, Africa is acutely aware that natural resource wealth does not automatically translate into economic growth and development. To avoid the “resource curse” and ensure that its critical mineral wealth contributes to job creation and local industry, Africa must build value chains within the continent. This imperative should be reflected in discussions of the just transition agenda at COP30.
These four priorities are interconnected by a deeper philosophical necessity. The extractive logic of the past—where manufacturing relied on exploitation and destruction—must give way to a more inclusive, just, and balanced approach that recognizes humans belong to nature, not the other way around. Africa can help lead this transformation, starting with COP30.
The barriers to progress are immense. China enjoys promoting solidarity among developing nations, but it does not necessarily channel its funds in the right places. The European Union struggles to reconcile competing priorities and navigate political volatility. Notably, the United States will not even attend COP30, which may embolden others to resist ambitious action. If consensus proves elusive, parties might pursue “mini-deals” that marginalize Africa.
When it comes to the green transition, Africa’s interests align with those of the global community. If the continent remains trapped in poverty and reliance on fossil fuels, global temperatures will continue to climb rapidly. However, if Africa is empowered to achieve green manufacturing, the rest of the world will gain a vital ally in the fight for a sustainable future.
