Artificial Intelligence Could Boost Global Trade by Up to 40% by 2040, According to the World Trade Organization
The World Trade Organization estimates that artificial intelligence could increase the value of cross-border exchanges of goods and services by between 34% and 37% by 2040, potentially impacting global GDP by between 12% and 13%. The report indicates that AI, if accompanied by appropriate policies, can reduce trade costs, facilitate exchanges, and enhance productivity in manufacturing, digital services, logistics, and data processing.
The World Trade Organization emphasizes the importance of narrowing the digital divide to ensure a fair distribution of benefits. Low- and middle-income countries could boost their revenues by 14% to 15% if they halve their digital lag and adopt AI more broadly. Investment in education and training, alongside labor market policies, is essential to prevent widening economic disparities.
The report also warns of increasing trade restrictions on AI-related technologies, which could limit access to these tools and slow their adoption process. Therefore, the World Trade Organization calls for open and predictable trade policies, reminding its role as a platform for dialogue to promote inclusive access to the opportunities offered by AI.
Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, Director-General of the World Trade Organization, states that AI represents a historic opportunity to transform global value chains and enhance inclusive growth, provided that technological investments, trade regulations, and social support are integrated effectively.
