Predictions of a Decline in Interest Rates
According to a survey conducted by the “BMCE Capital Global Research” center, 63 percent of Moroccan institutional investors expect Bank Al-Maghrib to lower the main interest rate by 25 basis points during its upcoming quarterly meeting on June 24.
The center linked these expectations to the European Central Bank’s ongoing shift towards monetary easing, Morocco’s control over inflation rates, and the need to bolster funding for national economic activity.
However, the report noted that Bank Al-Maghrib will take into account current international conditions, particularly the repercussions of the armed conflict between Iran and Israel and its potential impact on inflation.
This meeting occurs against a global backdrop marked by ongoing disturbances, resulting from the rise of protectionist policies in the United States and continuing trade tensions with China amid sporadic negotiations between the two economic powers.
The survey revealed that 88 percent of investors believe that Bank Al-Maghrib’s current monetary policy is appropriate, while 75 percent expect two reductions in the interest rate during 2025, averaging 25 basis points per decrease.
Conversely, all participants in the survey (100 percent) ruled out any increase in the main interest rate during the current year, even in the event of renewed inflationary pressures.
